Dreadful holiday season?  Not so sure …

Retail consumption has become a standard measure of economic health in the US and an often cited indicator of imminent recession. December 2007 retail sales were up 4.3 percent1 over last year according to the US Census Bureau, but growth has fallen sharply from recent years and is nearing its 2001 dot-com bust level. Headlines like “sluggish holiday sales,” “disappointing sales performances” and “retailer profit warnings” are becoming increasingly common and alarming to the sector and those seeking to invest in it.

While Christmas trading performance is an important metric for retailer health and resiliency to pensive consumers and economic recession, understanding retailers’ holiday performance is not as straightforward as it might seem.

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