SuperReturn International 2025 – Key Themes and Insights

OC&C partners joined industry leaders at SuperReturn International 2025, the world’s leading private equity and venture capital conference, to take stock of where the market stands – and where it’s heading.

Amid a backdrop of macro uncertainty and rising return pressures, this year’s agenda underscored a sharper focus on value creation, liquidity constraints, and the growing appeal of private credit. We’ve captured the key themes shaping investor conversations and capital deployment strategies in the year ahead.

1. Value Creation Is No Longer Optional

Across nearly every session, it was clear that ‚old-fashioned‘ business building/value creation is now the non-negotiable engine of PE returns.  There are no more “free rides” from cheap debt or multiple expansion. This has deepened LP scrutiny of operating teams, pushed firms to professionalize portfolio support, and raised expectations for VCPs to be differentiated, simple, and real – and already be a part of due diligence.

• Mid-market firms in particular emphasized mentoring founders, simplification in execution, and functional expertise in ops teams
• LPs are asking not just whether firms have VCP capabilities, but how they’re deployed via those with deeper sector-insights and experience.

2. Liquidity Challenges and the Capital Return Crunch

A recurring concern was liquidity constraints and weak exits particularly Q225.  Interest rates, misaligned valuation expectations, and macro uncertainty continue to hinder distributions — reflected in falling DoCV ratios and increased pressure from LPs.

• DoCV declined from a long-term average of 0.26 to ~0.10, according to Dawson
• Fundraising pressure is building as capital isn’t being returned in sufficient volume or speed.

3. Credit Ascendant, Equity Under Pressure

SuperReturn 2025 may be remembered as the year when credit took center stage. Nearly every panellist highlighted the relative strength, scalability, and opportunity in private credit.

• Credit’s „golden era“ is being driven by high base rates, public market retreat, and LP appetite for yield
• Equity strategies are increasingly constrained by low cash flow cover and fewer viable exits.

4. The Maturation and Consolidation of Private Equity

Several speakers noted that PE is entering a more mature phase, with likely consolidation across alternative asset classes. 

• Growth deployed is slowing, and future growth will be market-share driven
• There’s growing bifurcation between mega-platforms and specialist firms with a true edge
• Funds are struggling to deliver consistent returns and a large swathe of the market continues to deliver DPI below expectations, with some forecasts of market consolidation as a result.

5. Europe as Fragmented but Attractive

Europe was framed as a structurally mid-market and highly fragmented by speakers, yet still ripe with opportunity —especially in family-owned businesses and in sectors with significant digital/infrastructure and mission critical needs. 

• ‚EQ‘ and trust are key when working with founder-owners
• Cautious optimism remains, though European sponsors show slightly more hesitation toward U.S. expansion than vice versa.

6. Macro Headwinds, AI,  and Political Volatility

Macro themes — tariffs, inflation, supply chains, and geopolitics — loomed large. There were warnings of volatility and polarization, with panellists emphasizing the risk of the U.S. being its own worst enemy.

• Panellists expressed uncertainty around the macro environment, though a possible rate drop in H2 2025 could unlock activity
• AI, while hyped, is entering a more grounded application phase – with winners likely emerging at the use-case layer/applications
• With some speakers not worried about short-term movements but always focussing on fundamentals with scope to really drive value creation.

For more insights, connect with one of our experts – or email [email protected].