Scoring Big: Unlocking the NIL Opportunity in College Sports

The Name, Image, and Likeness (NIL) era has transformed U.S. college sports from a highly regulated amateur model into a multi-billion-dollar commercial ecosystem. Since the NCAA’s rule change in 2021, student-athletes have been free to profit from their personal brand, supporting the rapid market scaling seen since. In the 2024–25 season, NIL was worth an estimated $2.3 billion, with annual growth forecast at ~9% through 2029.

What began as a fragmented, donor-driven marketplace is now evolving into a structured industry shaped by regulatory reform, shifting financial models, and rising brand participation.

From Collectives to Colleges: A Changing Power Balance

The landmark House Settlement of June 2025 fundamentally reshaped NIL. For the first time, universities can directly share revenues with athletes — capped at $20.5m per program in 2025–26, rising 4% annually. In parallel, July’s Saving College Sports executive order banned “pay-to-play” deals, prohibiting donors or third parties from making payments not tied to a “fair market value.”

As a result, power is consolidating within athletic departments. This shift brings opportunities — but also financial strain. Fewer than 15% of the top 200 college programs currently generate a $10m+ budget surplus, raising tough questions on cost control and revenue generation. To compete, colleges must explore new levers of growth: multimedia rights, premium ticketing, sponsorship, and enhanced fan experiences.

Opportunities in NIL

For consumer brands, NIL has fast become an extension of sports sponsorships and influencer marketing. Top athletes now command audiences rivaling professional players — engagement rates average 3x higher than non-athlete influencers, offering brands access to a highly engaged Gen Z and Gen Alpha audience in a safe, media-trained environment.

It is no surprise that national brands dominate, accounting for more than 60% of NIL deal value. Apparel and footwear alone represent ~$400m in annual spend, followed by energy & supplements, and financial services.

A Concentrated but Expanding Market

Despite headline growth, NIL spend remains highly concentrated:

• ~50% of value sits in Power 4 conferences (SEC, Big Ten, ACC, Big 12).
• Football drives ~70% of spend, with men’s basketball contributing ~20%.
• A majority of deals — 68% — are worth under $1,000, yet most of the money flows to a handful of star athletes.

Looking ahead, however, the NIL economy is broadening. Forty U.S. states now permit high school NIL deals, creating a pipeline of youth talent with seven-figure valuations. Parents are also investing more heavily in training academies and facilities, further fueling the grassroots ecosystem.

Business Models Emerging Around NIL

As the market professionalizes, new business models are proliferating:

• Marketplaces and platforms — connecting athletes with fans and brands, often with 15–30% take rates.
• Enablement tools — powering compliance, content creation, and sponsorship matching.
• Talent agencies — moving downstream to secure early exposure to future professionals.
• Multimedia rights holders — unlocking under-monetized sponsorship and licensing opportunities.
• Training programs — meeting demand for elite youth and collegiate performance development.
• Private investment — from funds such as Elevate’s $500m collegiate vehicle, supporting infrastructure upgrades and direct athletic department financing.

Strategic Implications

The NIL market is still in its formative years, but the trajectory is clear: greater institutional control, heightened brand involvement, and broader downstream impact. For universities, brands, and investors alike, this is a moment of both challenge and opportunity.

To explore how your organization can navigate and capture value from the NIL economy, contact one of our experts today.