Understanding the GLP-1 Effect on Consumption Behavior

GLP-1 medications such as Ozempic and Wegovy, reduce caloric intake by mimicking satiety hormones, slowing gastric emptying, and modulating brain reward signals related to high-fat and high-sugar foods. Our survey (as of April 2025) stated that 9% of surveyed adults are currently using GLP-1 medications,  with an additional 6% having previously used them. Leading GLP-1 products have demonstrated weight loss of ~20% is feasible in 12-18 months, implying a significant change in diet behavior for those consumers.

Material consumption suppression for users, combined with rapid growth in user penetration is having a knock on effect on Food & Beverage spending behavior. We estimate that current usage levels are resulting in an aggregate 1-2% reduction in F&B volumes. As such, we see the ongoing growth in GLP-1 usage as a structural headwind to the industry, albeit not a paradigm shift. However, crucially, this consumption decline is not felt uniformly across categories, occasions and demographics.