If meteorologists are to be believed, the current global heatwave is due to last until October, and the effects of climate change will mean the great summer bake-off of 2018 becomes a regular weather fixture.
If retail statisticians are to be believed, warm weather stimulates food sales, but is painfully damaging to anything that doesn’t complement a BBQ.
So where does that leave non-food retailers? Is there a winning response to the growing volatility of summer trading?
As context, the impact of warm weather needs to be kept in perspective. Total non-food sales are down 1% in July [according to the British Retail Consortium]. People are still shopping, and for every retailer bemoaning the sun for taking the heat out of their sales, there is another that is claiming it has benefitted them. In other words, extreme weather clearly places additional pressure on sales, but in many instance, the heat is bringing to the surface more fundamental issues in retailer offers.
Against this backdrop, the most sophisticated retailers will be building flexibility into their models and proactive in their response to trading conditions through the trading year, not just over the summer.
The 5 things we would urge retailers to think about are:
For those retailers that embrace the challenge, there is no reason why long, hot summers can’t leave a warm trading feeling.
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