A view from the bridge

What to watch for in Retail – Market Leader Q2 2009

Wednesday 25 November 2009

Report

In 2008, the FTSE 100 moved up or down by more than 5% on 44 days, 22 of them in October. Volatility and uncertainty have soared.

So you may think I’m getting my excuses in early for predictions that will certainly miss the mark. But the main reason for thinking about the future is to have a chance of influencing it. Or preventing it. Or even building it. I’m going to look at the future of UK retail over two time frames – a medium term of three to five years, and a longer term of ten to fifteen years. Counter-intuitively the shorter timescale is more uncertain. Very long-term predictions tend to come to pass sooner or later, just not necessarily as fast, or as slowly, as you think.

In 2012, the UK retail landscape will remain profoundly affected by the 2008/09 credit crunch.

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